Claudia Codeco, Celina Turchi Martelli, Patricia Brasil, Marilia Sa Carvalho , 2025-05-16 09:25:00
- Claudia Codeço, senior researcher1,
- Celina Turchi Martelli, senior researcher2,
- Patricia Brasil, senior researcher3,
- Marilia Sá Carvalho, senior researcher1
- 1Programa de Computação Científica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- 2Programa de Pós-graduação, Instituto Aggeu Magalhaes, Fiocruz, Pernanbuco, Brazil
- 3Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Correspondence to: C Codeço claudia.codeco{at}fiocruz.br
In 2024, Latin America recorded its biggest ever dengue outbreak, with 13 million reported cases and 8328 deaths, mainly in Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, and Colombia.1 The region’s second largest recorded outbreak, in 2023, had 4.5 million cases. In the first 15 weeks of 2025, 2.1 million cases were reported, with higher than usual incidence in several Central and South American countries.2
The risk of increasingly severe outbreaks poses a persistent challenge to national health systems not only in Latin America but worldwide. In Europe, for example, conditions for dengue transmission have expanded to between June and November, and outbreaks may be triggered by imported cases.3
Infodengue, Brazil’s early warning system, raised a warning in 2024 given persistently high notifications in the winter combined with an extended season because of El Niño climate conditions.4 Intensified preparation efforts, including earlier resource allocation and public awareness campaigns, allowed better preparation of healthcare capacity, but the epidemic exceeded even the most pessimistic modelling, leading to system breakdown. Large dengue outbreaks overwhelm hospitals, compromise service quality, and increase mortality risks, particularly among vulnerable groups, such as people with pulmonary, heart, or renal disease, or diabetes. …
