Caitlyn Stulpin , 2025-04-21 18:26:00
April 21, 2025
2 min read
Key takeaways:
- Researchers used a simulation model to estimate the economic burden of long COVID.
- Costs of long COVID could exceed $2 billion and reach nearly $31 billion, depending on longevity of symptoms.
The economic burden of long COVID may exceed $2 billion and reach nearly $31 billion when symptoms last between 1 and 3 years, and researchers say these numbers will likely continue to grow as COVID-19 cases increase.
“Currently, long COVID affects an estimated 44.69 million to 48.04 million people in the United States alone,” Bruce Y. Lee, MD, MBA, professor of health policy and management at the City University of New York School of Public Health, told Healio. “As long COVID cases continue to rise, this will cause a major health and economic burden along with negative financial repercussions on employers, insurers, the health care systems and society.”
Data derived from Bartsch SM, et al. J Infect Dis. 2025;doi:10.1093/infdis/jiaf030.
To quantify the clinical and economic impact of long COVID, Lee and colleagues developed a computational simulation model of SARS-CoV-2 infections to represent the clinical course, health effects and associated costs of a patient with long COVID.
According to the study, each individual entered into the simulation model starts as being infected with COVID-19. From there, different probabilities are used to determine if they will develop long COVID, with additional probabilities for experiencing the different long COVID symptoms. Based on symptoms, each person then has a probability of seeking care and being treated for their symptoms, missing work or school and having reduced productivity while at work or school.
Using these models, the researchers generated cost estimates based on direct costs — such as medical expenses — and indirect costs — such as productivity losses and absenteeism — associated with having long COVID.
Based on the current number of long COVID cases in the United States, the model estimates showed that long COVID cases with symptoms lasting 1 year could cost an estimated $2.01 billion. Of this, 1.04% ($20.95 million) is for direct medical costs and the remaining $1.99 billion is for productivity losses.
For patients with symptoms lasting 3 years, the researchers estimate costs to be an average of $30.8 billion, according to the study. Lee said that projections for the future cost of long COVID showed estimates of $2.6 trillion in reduced health, medical care spending and lost earnings over 5 years.
Based on these estimates, the researchers determined that the current economic burden of long COVID could already exceed that of other chronic conditions, including carpal tunnel ($2.7 billion to $4.8 billion annually), Lyme disease ($345 million to $968 million annually) and psoriasis ($35.2 billion annually).
“Long COVID can be very costly and very resource intensive, therefore it’s important to raise more awareness of long COVID, improve and develop new ways of preventing, diagnosing and treating COVID and training more clinicians to recognize and manage long COVID,” Lee said.
Lee said that the primary way to prevent COVID-19, thus preventing long COVID, is through vaccination and proactive surveillance. He added that infection control measures and the continuation of funding research to develop long COVID treatments are also key in combating the future burden of long COVID.
For more information
Bruce Y. Lee, MD, MBA, can be reached at bruceleemdmba@gmail.com.
Sources/Disclosures
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Disclosures:
Lee reports no relevant financial disclosures. Please see the study for all other authors’ relevant financial disclosures.
